| 요약2 |
The national land planning and use act (NLPUA), which became effective in 2003, states that every local authority should draw up its comprehensive plan to cover whole administrative area. This study examines the population projection in the comprehensive plans of 31 municipalities in Gyounggi-do(province), where various types of municipalities exist, from rural communities to large cities. Overestimation of population can cause overuse of land and excessive planning of infrastructures. It also brings about side effects such as unplanned developments and impracticable infrastructure plans, while underestimation puts local authorities into trouble about long-term plan-making. In this study, overestimation of population including migration, distribution of estimated population into an early stage, and lack of proper forecasting method for stagnant cities are noted as limitations around population forecast. In order to overcome these limitations, this study suggests some alternative approaches including introducing 'regional reserved population' concept, imposing financial disincentive for population overestimation, and strengthening central government's right to supervise and guide local governments. It is also proposed that diversification of methods to check projected population and consideration for long-term policy to revitalize lagging municipalities are needed in the examination of urban planning committees. |