| 요약2 |
Many studies have focused on the housing demand forecasting in order to articulate the housing policies. However, in most cases, forecasting methods used in their studies have not fully considered the variables which may affect housing demand, and furthermore, some of them have shown complicated formulas which are not easily understandable. The housing demand forecasting in this study is based on the concept of the per capita living space assuming that; i) the increasing rate of housing cost is ranged from 3 to 5%, ii) GNI per capita is 6～8%, and iii) housing expenditure rate is between 0.0135 and 0.0155. The result of this study shows that the housing demand has the highest chance of being 280M㎡ during the period of 2006～2020. And the probability that the housing demand is 85M～480M㎡ is about 70percents. Based on the result, this study suggests that housing policy makers place top priority on housing supply totaling 280M㎡ and provide more flexibility to their housing supply plan to deal with fluctuating housing demand under the short-term economic situations. |