| 요약2 |
This study aims to identify the effects of housing supply and loss on housing price and to predict changes in housing price due to the quantities of houses supplied and disappeared by New-Town Projects in Seoul. To do this, the quantities of houses supplied and disappeared were estimated up to 2015 through the master plans of New-Town Projects. A Stock-Flow model was employed for exploring the effects of housing supply and loss on housing price by life zones, and a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) Impulse Decomposition model was used to predict the changes of housing price caused by New-Town Projects. The results showed that a total of five hundred thousand houses will be supplied until 2015, while a total of two hundred fifty thousand houses will be vanished. It was found that the effects of the quantities of houses supplied and appeared on housing price are varied across life zones. Especially, the loss of housing was found to increase the changing rate of housing price after the loss of housing was started. The supply of houses, however, was found to decrease the changing rate of housing price since the second quarter of the year after the supply of houses will be completed. Since the effects of New-Town Projects on housing price are varied across life zones, therefore, the location and the time of New-Town Projects should be determined with regard to the quantities of houses supplied and disappeared by life zones in Seoul. |