| 요약2 |
This study questions if the credit risk of project finance loans for housing pre-sale(PFHs) clings only to the credit degradation of construction firms, regardless of the projects' marketability and cash flows. Based on 366 outstanding PFHs from 4 commercial banks, this study aims at identifying the credit risk factors of PFHs thus answering the question. Four dependents are used to test the credit level of each loan: the delinquency, ratio of bad loan allowance to outstanding loan amount, FLC(Forward-Looking Criteria) and lenders' forecast about the loan. From Model 1, focusing on the ex-ante project information before the first drawdown, we find that market interest rates on the signing dates, construction firms' credit ratings and their credit grants to borrowers are significantly correlated to the credit risk. Lenders seem to review project feasibility and analyze corporate credit more conservatively in the era of tight money. Through Model 2, concerning the ex-post information before the start of pre-sale, the rapid and severe degrading of construction companies and interest rates hike-up are influencing the credit risk of PFHs. The results from Model 3, regarding the ex-post information by loan maturity, show that the delayed project schedule as well as the default risk of construction firms are the main factors to risk projects and PFHs. Our study implies that more conservative loan rating and/or corporate analysis and stricter management of project schedule are effective ways to hedge and manage the credit risk of PFHs in advance. |