| 요약2 |
In this paper, we extended the estimation of the Mankiw and Weil (1989) model and predict long-term housing demand for the period of 2000 to 2030 based on socio-demographic changes such as the number of family members and the existence of spouses in a household. Considering the increase of one-person or spouseless households, we found that housing demand for these types of households is increasing, but less rapidly than the increment of the number of these types of households. The M-W model predicts that the annual rate of change in housing demand gradually decreases, being negative after 2029. However, after consideration of such variables, we estimate that there will still be an increase in housing demand by 0.09%, even in 2030. |